Mathematical modelling of COVID-19
Today is the 71st day of the first known case of Coronavirus in India. Given below is a ROUGH prediction chart based on the public data available to us about COVID-19 cases in India.
The chart above is a rough prediction of where we are heading. Take with a grain of salt please, this is just one of the scenario that might happen based on the simulation model given at the end of the post.
I am posting this chart so more become aware of what might happen if we don’t take serious measure to distance ourselves from other people. We are already late in acting on the problem.
Variables Considered for the model
- Starting Population: Population of your country, city or village. Eg. I went with population number 1352642280 for India according to Wikipedia.
- Immune people + Elite/Rich in Bunkers: Number of people who are immune or will never get the virus as they will sit it out in the luxury of their homes or bunkers.
- Start Date: Date on which the first patient was found/infected. eg. January 30th 2020 in the case of India
- Initial Infections: First few infections that occurred. Eg. I am approximating ‘2’ in the case of India.
- R0 number (Infection rate): An approximate number of people that get infected by a COVID-19 positive patient during the incubation period. According to the data we have for India the approximate R0 number is coming around ‘3.22’
- Incubation Period: The average number of days it takes for one to show the symptoms of COVID-19 i.e.The average period between exposure and showing signs or symptoms of the infection. Eg. 4 to 7 days approx.
- Mortality Percentage: How many die of those infected. Eg. 3.4% according to WHO. This number can vary in the case of India.
- Mortality Complication Percentage: When there are more patients then the doctors, the healthcare systems will be overwhelmed. At this time, mortality will increase over a short period. I approximated the value to be around 10% in the case of India.
- Virus Burnout Percentage: This vector considers the lockdown effect, No more healthy humans to infect, herd immunity, vaccine etc.
Try Simulating a prediction about your Country or City
Again, accept the results while maintaining a degree of skepticism about its truth. Play around to see the magnitude of the problem we are facing.
Once you populate the fields and click submit, scroll down to see the graphs and results.
You can use the above form to play different scenarios out. I’ll keep updating the model as more data gets available.
Update: May 8th
99 days of Covid 19 in India. Even if we believe the official numbers by 19th May India should have infections above 1 lakh 20 thousand at least.
Update: May 20th
Officially we have 1,07,819 cases in India now. Cases are going to increase and by 8th of June we should be around 2,20,000 cases.
Share among friends to raise awareness about what is to come.
Love and peace,
Vikram Jeet Singh Parmar